NEW YORK, July 6, 2021 / PRNewswire / – The Conference Board â¢ Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose in June, following an increase in May. The index now stands at 109.84, compared to 107.70 (an upward revision) the previous month. The index is now up 28.2% year-on-year (i.e. compared to june 2020).
“The very rapid improvement in the employment trends index in June suggests that strong job growth will continue through the summer,” said Gad Levanon, director of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. âOver the next few months, the US labor market is expected to remain very tight. Recruitment and retention will remain extremely difficult and salary growth will remain very high. Towards the end of 2021, labor shortages are expected to ease supply constraints. But as the number of jobs in the US economy continues to grow at a historically high rate, unemployment could drop below 4% again over the next 12 months. A tight labor market will likely be the new normal until the next recession. ”
The June increase was fueled by positive contributions from seven of the eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, the components were as follows: Ratio of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers; Initial unemployment insurance claims; Number of temporary employees; Percentage of respondents who say they find âhard to get jobsâ; Industrial production; Jobs ; and actual manufacturing and trade sales. The only indicator with a negative contribution was the percentage of companies whose positions are not able to fill at the moment.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. The index’s turning points indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index is composed of eight leading employment indicators, each of which has been proven to be correct in its own domain. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out ânoiseâ to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight main employment indicators aggregated in the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of respondents who say they find “hard-to-get jobs” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence SurveyÂ®)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (US Department of Labor)
- Percentage of companies whose positions cannot be filled at the moment (Â© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of employees hired by the temporary help industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers (BLS)
- Job vacancies (BLS) **
- Industrial production (Federal Reserve) *
- Real manufacturing and trade sales (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) **
* Statistical imputation for the recent month
** Statistical imputation for the last two months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index on a monthly basis. 10 a.m.ETon the Monday following the publication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report each Friday. Technical Notes in this series are available on the Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that provides reliable information about the future. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity with 501 (c) (3) tax exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
SOURCE The Conference Board